Orbu is a prediction engine focused on creating AI safety standards through financial and cultural predictions. Our first prediction competitions will ask participants to make predictions on a range of topics. The insights that we glean from our competitions are valuable to the investment community and are used to create an AI safety database.
To participate you must either have been invited by Orbu.AI, or be either a student or faculty at a participating institution or club.
At launch, Orbu is creating private prediction competitions in conjunction with industry leading academics. Our beta model is in line with other academic competitions like WorldQuant BRAIN’s International Quant Championship (worldquantbrain.com) which awards cash prizes for accurate quantitative predictions.
The complete Terms and Conditions are below. Orbu predictions are unique in that participants must explain the reasoning for their particular predictions by posting a video on the Orbu Social Platform. This highly structured data is processed by Orbu’s machine learning tools to glean additional insights into how the predictions were reached, how they are related, and how they can be used to inform precise forecasting and AI safety standards.
Once Orbu.AI is fully live (non-Beta testing phase), successful predictors will be paid a one time prize for the correct prediction. Prizes are paid in ORBU Tokens and vary depending on the particular competition. The ORBU Token Beta Test rules appear below. Note that the ORBU Token is not yet live. Beta test participants will be informed via email when Token distributions are to be made and will be given further instructions at that time. Orbu estimates that the Token will be live in 2025 and will be released pursuant to our EU Subsidiary. Prize amounts will be listed in the Prediction Question Post. In the event of a tie the winner will be the first in time prediction.
ORBU Beta Test Rules Token Reward Program Terms and Conditions (Token Terms)
- Eligibility Participants must be registered Beta testers of the Platform to be eligible for the Program. Participants must have completed and posted predictions in the Orbu.AI Social Platform and completed the mandatory survey after making their predictions. Participation in the Program is subject to compliance with these Terms and Conditions ("Terms").
- Reward Eligible Beta testers will receive a reward equivalent to $50.00 US Dollars in ORBU Tokens ("Reward") upon the official launch of the Platform for completion of at least one prediction and the completion of the Beta Test Survey. In addition, Beta Testers are eligible to receive an additional $50.00 US Dollars in ORBU Tokens completing each of the remaining five Beta test predictions. As of February 16th, 2024 the six eligible Beta test predictions are the following:
Prediction: Price of Gasoline June 1st 2024 Deadline: March 23rd 2024
Prediction: US Inflation as of June 1st 2024 Deadline: May 1st 2024
Prediction: Section 230 change by November 1st 2024 Deadline: July 24th 2024
Prediction: Reach AGI by December 31st 2024 Deadline: August 31st 2024
Prediction: US Presidential Election 2024 Deadline: October 1st 2024
Prediction: Price of Bitcoin on January 1st 2025 Deadline: October 1st 2024 4. Prizes and Future Competitions Beta test participants will be automatically enrolled in future competitions in which new users participate once competitions are live and open to the eligible public. In the event that Orbu.AI, in its sole discretion, chooses to open Competitions to new entrants, Beta Test Participants will be informed via email. Beta Test participants will be entitled to keep their existing prediction or submit a new one at no cost and will become eligible, subject to the terms contained herein, to receive the posted prize.
- Distribution The distribution of ORBU Tokens is anticipated to begin in 2025 via our regulated subsidiary. However, Orbu.AI reserves the right to adjust the distribution timeline at its sole discretion and does not guarantee any specific release date for the Tokens.
- Discretionary Refusal Orbu.AI reserves the right, at its sole discretion, to refuse the distribution of ORBU Tokens to any individual. Reasons for refusal may include, but are not limited to, jurisdictional and regulatory requirements specific to the individual.
- Ineligibility and Alternative Reward In the event an individual is deemed ineligible to receive ORBU Tokens, Orbu.AI will offer said individual complimentary access to a single Prediction Competition on the Platform, waiving the standard entry fee. This alternative reward is limited to one Prediction Competition per ineligible Beta Tester.
- Risk Factors The determination of risk factors that may lead to ineligibility for Token distribution lies solely with Orbu.AI. These factors will be assessed at Orbu.AI's discretion and may include a range of considerations relevant to the individual's circumstances.
- No Guarantee Participation in the Program does not guarantee receipt of ORBU Tokens. The final decision regarding eligibility and distribution of the Tokens rests with Orbu.AI.
- Amendments Orbu.AI reserves the right to modify, suspend, or terminate the Program or these Terms at any time and for any reason, with or without notice.
- Governing Law These Terms shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the jurisdiction in which Orbu.AI operates at the time of the token launch, without giving effect to any principles of conflicts of law.
- Acceptance Participation in the Program constitutes acceptance of these Terms. By participating, Beta testers agree to be bound by these Terms and the decisions of Orbu.AI, which shall be final and binding in all respects.
- Contact For any questions or concerns regarding the Program or these Terms, please contact Orbu.AI through the official communication channels provided on the Platform.
An individual (“you” or the “participant”) who wishes to participate in one or more Orbu Prediction Competitions (referred to herein as the “Orbu Competitions”) must be eighteen (18) years of age or older (or of legal age of majority in his/her jurisdiction of residence, whichever is greater) and not otherwise prohibited from participating in the Orbu Prediction Competition by any applicable law, regulation, agreement, binding obligation or policy. The Orbu Competitions are sponsored and administered by Orbu.AI UK Ltd. (“Orbu,” “we” or “us”).
While Orbu Competitions are designed as a global competition or set of competitions, any individual may be deemed ineligible to participate and/or to receive a cash prize pursuant to applicable law or regulation. These competitions are tests of skill and knowledge, not chance. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, residents of the following countries, regions or provinces shall be ineligible to participate in the Orbu Competitions: Afghanistan, Belarus, Brazil, the Canadian province of Quebec, Cuba, Iran, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine; and/or any area, province, region or country subject to applicable sanctions by the United States Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
In addition, participants who are residents of certain countries may participate in the Orbu Competitions, however, such participants will be ineligible to receive any cash prize or cash equivalent in connection with the Orbu Competitions pursuant to applicable law or regulation, including without limitation, residents of the United Arab Emirates, Kenya and Nigeria. Other local rules and regulations may apply to you, so please check your local laws to ensure that you are eligible to participate in skills-based competitions.
To participate, you must first register as an Orbu.AI user and be issued login credentials. During the registration process for an account, you will have the option to elect to participate in the Orbu Competitions.
Each participant may register only once for the Orbu Competitions. No predictions submitted by a participant prior to registering for the Orbu Competitions will be considered.
A participant’s account and login credentials may not be shared with any other individual. A participant may only have one active account. Duplicate accounts for one individual are grounds for disqualification not only from the Orbu Competitions. Please ensure that you immediately deactivate any duplicate accounts you may knowingly or accidentally have created.
You acknowledge that by participating in the Orbu Competitions that Orbu.AI is the sole owner of your predictions and can use the data for any legal purpose including but not limited to training its artificial intelligence safety standards.
You are responsible for complying with any employer or university policies applicable to you in association with participating in a competition of this nature. You are also responsible for obtaining any third party permissions necessary for your participation in the Orbu Competitions, including, but not limited to, from any employer or university. The scoring methodology for the Orbu Competitions may vary in each stage of the Orbu Competitions, at the sole discretion of Orbu.AI. Orbu.AI will assign ranks based on average performance among other factors in its sole discretion. We reserve the right to change the scoring methodology for the Orbu Competitions at any time. By accepting any prize, you hereby agree to the use of your name, city/state or province and country, likeness and/or prize information by Orbu.AI and its designees for promotional purposes in any manner and medium, now or hereafter devised, worldwide for a period of three (3) years, without additional compensation, notification or permission. Any winnings restricted or prohibited by applicable law shall be deemed void. If a potential winner is a U.S. citizen, the potential winner must also sign and return an IRS W-9 form, or if a non-U.S. resident, an IRS W-8BEN form, within the stated time period in order to claim the prize. It is each participant’s responsibility to ensure that his or her profile information is accurate; if a participant is found to have falsified his or her university affiliation or any other information, he or she will be disqualified from the Orbu Competitions. Any participants using any illegal, offensive, inflammatory, abusive, libelous, defamatory, discriminatory, obscene or otherwise inappropriate image, language or other content in their profile or otherwise on this site shall be disqualified. By participating in the Orbu Competitions, you agree to grant certain rights to your predictions and other input as set forth herein and to comply with these guidelines and the Agreement (incorporated herein by reference). By participating in the Orbu Competitions, you represent and warrant that any prediction submitted by you is your original work. No part of the prediction can be subject to the rights of any other person or entity. WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO AMEND THE SITE, ANY ELEMENTS OF THE ORBU COMPETITIONS OR THESE GUIDELINES AT ANY TIME IN OUR SOLE DISCRETION WITH OR WITHOUT NOTICE TO THE PARTICIPANTS, AND TO CANCEL, CHANGE OR TERMINATE THE ORBU COMPETITIONS OR DISQUALIFY ANY PARTICIPANTS WITHOUT ANY COMPENSATION, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, DEEMING A PARTICIPANT INELIGIBLE TO RECEIVE A PRIZE PURSUANT TO ANY APPLICABLE LAW OR REGULATION. We reserve the right to review any submitted predictions and disqualify or terminate the participant’s account without any notice if we find the deliberate introduction of “noise” to subvert our scoring. Furthermore, if we detect any signs of “gaming,” sharing, cheating or any other unethical or dishonest behavior, we will terminate the participant’s and/or the team’s account and may report the matter as necessary. The Orbu Competitions are administered in the English language and by participating in the Orbu Competitions, you acknowledge and agree that you understand the English language and you have read, understand and agree to the terms set forth in these guidelines in English. In addition, you acknowledge that the Orbu Competitions are organized and directed from the United Kingdom and subject to the laws of the UK. CAUTION: ANY ATTEMPT TO DELIBERATELY DAMAGE THE ORBU.AI WEBSITE OR UNDERMINE THE LEGITIMATE OPERATION OF THE ORBU COMPETITIONS MAY BE IN VIOLATION OF CRIMINAL AND CIVIL LAWS AND SHOULD SUCH AN ATTEMPT BE MADE, ORBU.AI RESERVES THE RIGHT TO SEEK DAMAGES AND OTHER REMEDIES (INCLUDING ATTORNEYS’ FEES) FROM ANY SUCH INDIVIDUAL TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW, INCLUDING CRIMINAL PROSECUTION. RELEASED PARTIES: Except in the event that Orbu.AI has breached its obligations whether legal or contractual or where prohibited by law or otherwise excluded herein, each participant agrees to release, indemnify, discharge and hold harmless Orbu.AI, and its parent, affiliates, subsidiaries, and advertising and promotion agencies, and the respective officers, directors, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives of the foregoing (individually a “Released Party” and collectively, “Released Parties”) from any and all liability, losses and damages of any kind to persons, including death, or property resulting, in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, from your participation in the Orbu Competitions or any Orbu-related activity, the acceptance, possession, use or misuse of a prize and/or Orbu.AI’s use of the rights granted herein. IF YOU ARE A RESIDENT OF GERMANY THIS PARAGRAPH APPLIES TO THE EXCLUSION OF PARAGRAPH 16, ABOVE: The Released Parties shall be liable for damages caused by culpable injury to life, body or health. For any other losses or damages of any kind that result from acceptance, possession or use of any prize or from participation or attempted participation in the Orbu Competitions, you agree (by participating in the Orbu Competitions) to release the Released Parties from any and all liability whatsoever unless the damage of the Participant is caused by gross negligence or wilful intent of a Released Party. The Released Parties are especially not liable for defective prizes, unless such defect is caused by gross negligence or wilful intent of a Released Party. In an event of slight negligence, the Released Parties shall be liable only for breaches of a material contractual obligation (“Cardinal Duty”). A “Cardinal Duty” is an obligation whose fulfillment makes the implementation of this Orbu possible in the first place and on the fulfillment of which you may therefore generally rely. Liability in case of a breach of a Cardinal Duty shall be limited to the typical, foreseeable damages. GENERAL CONDITIONS: Released Parties are not responsible for lost, late, incomplete, damaged, inaccurate, stolen, delayed, misdirected, undelivered, or garbled entries, email or mail; or for lost, interrupted or unavailable network, server, Internet Service Provider (ISP), website, or other connections, availability or accessibility or miscommunications or failed computer, satellite, telephone or cable transmissions, lines, or technical failure or jumbled, scrambled, delayed, or misdirected transmissions or computer hardware or software malfunctions, failures or difficulties, or other errors or difficulties of any kind whether human, mechanical, electronic, computer, network, typographical, printing or otherwise relating to or in connection with the Orbu Competitions, including, without limitation, errors or difficulties which may occur in connection with the administration of the Orbu Competitions, the processing or judging of entries, the announcement of the prizes or in any Orbu-related materials, including receiving prize claim documents executed by winners. Except in the event that they have breached their obligations whether legal or contractual: (i) Released Parties are also not responsible for any incorrect or inaccurate information, whether caused by site users, tampering, hacking, or by any equipment or programming associated with or utilized in the Orbu Competitions; and (ii) Released Parties are not responsible for damage to any person’s computer related to or resulting from participating in the Orbu Competitions. IF YOU ARE A RESIDENT OF GERMANY RELEASE OF RESPONSIBILITY AS DESCRIBED IN ABOVE TWO PARAGRAPHS DOES NOT APPLY IN CASE OF GROSS NEGLIGENCE OR WILFUL INTENT OF A RELEASED PARTY. For U.K. participants, the Released Parties do not exclude or limit their liability where it would be unlawful to do so, including for (i) fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; and (ii) death or personal injury caused by negligence. The Released Parties will not be responsible for (and will have no liability in connection with) the following occurrences, to the extent that they occur for reasons beyond the reasonable control of the Released Parties: any postponement or cancellation of the Orbu Competitions; any changes to prizes or the way in which they can be used; problems with the dispatch of prizes (such as prizes failing to reach the intended recipient); and any act or default of any third party supplier. For Australian residents only: Nothing in these guidelines restricts, excludes or modifies or purports to restrict, exclude or modify any statutory consumer rights under any applicable law including the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth). FOR HUNGARY RESIDENTS: If any winner is a resident of Hungary, the prize won by such winner qualifies as taxable income of the winner. The winner shall comply with his or her tax return and tax payment obligation by the 12th day of the calendar month following the calendar quarter during which the Orbu Competitions ends. Any such winner shall pay personal income tax (15%) and social contribution tax (19.5%) upon a tax base of 84% of the value of the prize. Orbu.AI rejects any and all liability in relation to the performance of such tax obligation. By participating, the winner(s) acknowledge(s) the above tax related obligations.